Belgium–England

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 November 2020 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Belgium to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (1X — Belgium win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,613 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Belgium to win48.4%

Draw26.3%

England to win25.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Belgium win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Belgium

Attack: Belgium score 110% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: England concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

England

Attack: England score 82% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Belgium concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.