Türkiye–Russia

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 November 2020 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Szymon Marciniak, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Russia to win”. Second comes “Türkiye to win” at 34.3%.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,606 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Türkiye to win34.3%

Draw29.3%

Russia to win36.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Türkiye win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Türkiye

Attack: Türkiye score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Russia concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Russia

Attack: Russia score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Türkiye concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.