Germany–Ukraine

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 November 2020 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Ovidiu Hategan, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “Germany to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Germany win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,600 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Germany to win65.4%

Draw20.9%

Ukraine to win13.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Germany win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Germany

Attack: Germany score 107% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ukraine concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Ukraine

Attack: Ukraine score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Germany concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.