Belarus–Kazakhstan

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 October 2020 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dinamo Stadium, Minsk

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Aleksandar Stavrev, North Macedonia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Belarus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (1X — Belarus win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Belarus to win44.5%

Draw28.9%

Kazakhstan to win26.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Belarus win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Belarus

Attack: Belarus score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kazakhstan concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Kazakhstan

Attack: Kazakhstan score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Belarus's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.