Romania–Austria

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 October 2020 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadionul Ilie Oana, Ploiesti

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Daniel Stefanski, Poland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Romania to win”. Second comes “Austria to win” at 35.4%.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Romania to win36.6%

Draw28.1%

Austria to win35.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Romania win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Romania

Attack: Romania score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Austria concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Austria

Attack: Austria score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Romania's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.