Russia–Hungary

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 October 2020 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Central Dynamo Stadium, Moscow

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Michael Oliver, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.3%: “Russia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (1X — Russia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,568 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Russia to win71.3%

Draw18.6%

Hungary to win10.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 941 of 1,254 predictions were correct (75.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Russia win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Russia

Attack: Russia score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hungary's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Hungary

Attack: Hungary score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Russia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.