Germany–Netherlands

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 19 November 2018 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Ovidiu Hategan, Romania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Germany to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Germany win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Germany to win52.1%

Draw24.4%

Netherlands to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Germany win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Germany

Attack: Germany score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Netherlands concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Netherlands

Attack: Netherlands score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Germany concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.