Denmark–Ireland

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 19 November 2018 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Referee

Aliyar Aghayev, Azerbaijan→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.4%: “Denmark to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — Denmark win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Denmark to win68.4%

Draw21.9%

Ireland to win9.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Denmark win or draw

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Denmark

Attack: Denmark score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Ireland's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Ireland

Attack: Ireland score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Denmark concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.