Italy–Portugal

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 November 2018 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

Referee

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Portugal to win”. Second comes “Italy to win” at 34.9%.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Italy to win34.9%

Draw29.8%

Portugal to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Italy win or draw

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.8%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

Italy

Attack: Italy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portugal concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Portugal

Attack: Portugal score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Italy concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.