1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Boluspor–Pendikspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'BolusporR. Rivas
66'PendiksporD. Hrelja (assist: B. Karadeniz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boluspor		Pendikspor
10	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	10
2	Offsides	5
25%	Possession	75%
213	Passes	629
142	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boluspor 1.30 · Pendikspor 1.51. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Boluspor 10 · Pendikspor 10; on target 2 and 4.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (75%).

Announced lineup

Boluspor

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: D. Farrar

Starting XI

A. Tafasgoalkeeper
K. Cuestadefender
B. Göçmendefender
Ahmet Ozdemirdefender
T. Artuçmidfielder
M. Mertmidfielder
Furkan Kaçmazmidfielder
Fernando Escobarmidfielder
N. Korkmazmidfielder
R. Rivasforward

Substitutes

A. Cirak
A. Kırım
Arda Tuğra Saygı

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.1%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Boluspor, 2.12 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (X2 — draw or Pendikspor win).
These values were computed from 1,438 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boluspor to win11.7%

Draw20.2%

Pendikspor to win68.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Muhammet Zeki Dursun

Pendikspor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Umut Eskiköy

Starting XI

U. Yuvakurangoalkeeper
S. Abifadedefender
V. Soldodefender
B. Sülüngözdefender
K. Kalafatdefender
M. Özdemirmidfielder
H. Yeşilmidfielder
B. Karadenizmidfielder
E. Pekdemirmidfielder
D. Hreljamidfielder
Thuramforward

Substitutes

A. Ogulcan
A. Özkaya
Burak Gültekin
E. Başsan
E. Koyuncu
F. Doğan
Ismaila Manga
Mirko Šušak
T. İnce
Y. Sönmez

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:02.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Boluspor win or draw31.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.8%

X2 — draw or Pendikspor win88.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Boluspor lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time39.3%

Pendikspor lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Boluspor ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1438 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boluspor: at least 10Actual: 12
Pendikspor: at least 14Actual: 8

Corners

Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boluspor score1.30

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.51

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.4%1–210.7%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1438 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 115 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.