1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 7

Sarıyer–Bandırmaspor

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'SarıyerE. Eze (penalty)
71'BandırmasporLucas Lima (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarıyer		Bandırmaspor
12	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
38%	Possession	62%
303	Passes	490
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarıyer 1.29 · Bandırmaspor 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sarıyer 12 · Bandırmaspor 19; on target 4 and 6.
Bandırmaspor kept the ball more (62%).

Announced lineup

Sarıyer

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: B. Bölükbaşı

Starting XI

I. Šehićgoalkeeper
E. Korkmazoğludefender
C. Osmanpaşadefender
K. Arslandefender
C. Karayeldefender
Marcos Silvamidfielder
E. Karacamidfielder
F. Gedikmidfielder
A. Biyogo Pokomidfielder
B. Alicimidfielder
E. Ezeforward

Substitutes

B. Kör
D. Davas

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Sarıyer to win”. Second comes “Bandırmaspor to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Sarıyer, 1.16 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,437 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarıyer to win39.3%

Draw29.2%

Bandırmaspor to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Bandırmaspor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Ertuğrul Arslan

Starting XI

A. Alkangoalkeeper
Lucas Limadefender
Y. Kocatürkdefender
B. Bekaroğludefender
A. Ülgendefender
D. Liçomidfielder
R. Mulumbamidfielder
M. Gümüşkayamidfielder
K. Donertasmidfielder
T. Kehindemidfielder
A. Badjiforward

Substitutes

A. Biler
Dame Seck
E. Çinemre
Emirhan Ayhan
Enes Aydın
F. Bekleviç
H. Bilgiç
M. Genç
Recep Yalın Dilek
Yasin Midilic

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 17:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sarıyer win or draw68.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.8%

X2 — draw or Bandırmaspor win60.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sarıyer lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time46.5%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarıyer ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1437 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 19
Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Sarıyer: at least 4Actual: 3
Bandırmaspor: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.9%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarıyer score1.29

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score1.05

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1437 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 44 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.