1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 6

İstanbulspor–Iğdır FK

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Iğdır FKA. Çolak (assist: F. Afena-Gyan)
90+6'İstanbulsporÃ. Duymaz (assist: M. Ologo)
90+8'Iğdır FKS. Gürler (assist: S. Gönül)

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Iğdır FK
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
455	Passes	346
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.57 · Iğdır FK 1.26. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots İstanbulspor 14 · Iğdır FK 10; on target 4 and 5.
İstanbulspor kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

İstanbulspor

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: B. Kanbak

Starting XI

A. Tutargoalkeeper
Y. Özerdefender
M. Ologodefender
A. Akmandefender
M. DaÄaÅandefender
E. Mendymidfielder
E. Uzunhanmidfielder
D. Aydınmidfielder
I. Ilievmidfielder
Alieu Chammidfielder
Phellipeforward

Substitutes

Ã. Duymaz
B. Nızam

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “İstanbulspor to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for İstanbulspor, 1.51 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,433 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win29.7%

Draw27.3%

Iğdır FK to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Iğdır FK

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: K. Kocak

Starting XI

J. Szumskigoalkeeper
S. Gönüldefender
L. Kouagbadefender
A. Öztürkdefender
H. Karabeydefender
G. Crociatamidfielder
D. Erdoğanmidfielder
G. Kayamidfielder
F. Afena-Gyanforward
A. Çolakforward
D. Hotićforward

Substitutes

A. Ãztürk
A. Selvi
D. Şenyurt
E. Sihlaroğlu
L. Caliskan
M. Camara
Malik Yilmaz
Ö. Özcan
S. Gürler
T. Tepe

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 14:12.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — İstanbulspor win or draw57.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Iğdır FK win70.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

İstanbulspor lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time40.0%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time34.8%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level65.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1433 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 10Actual: 8
Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 9
Iğdır FK: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.57

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.26

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.9%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1433 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 81 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.