1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 6

Keçiörengücü–Sarıyer

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Keçiörengücüİ. Akdağ (assist: M. Diouf)
63'KeçiörengücüF. Ezeh (assist: M. Diouf)
84'KeçiörengücüEnes Yilmaz (assist: E. Develi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Keçiörengücü		Sarıyer
18	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
316	Passes	498
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Keçiörengücü 1.69 · Sarıyer 1.06. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Keçiörengücü 18 · Sarıyer 8; on target 6 and 1.
Sarıyer kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “Sarıyer to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Keçiörengücü, 1.21 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,428 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Keçiörengücü to win43.1%

Draw27.5%

Sarıyer to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time40.8%

Sarıyer lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1428 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 16
Sarıyer: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Keçiörengücü: at least 3Actual: 5
Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.69

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.69 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Sarıyer score1.06

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.