1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 5

Bodrum FK–Esenler Erokspor

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 3 September 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Esenler Erokspor
9	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
302	Passes	488
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.40 · Esenler Erokspor 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 9 · Esenler Erokspor 19; on target 4 and 5.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Rasit Yorgancilar→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Bodrum FK to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Bodrum FK, 1.28 for Esenler Erokspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,425 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win35.6%

Draw28.7%

Esenler Erokspor to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	6

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time43.5%

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Esenler Erokspor ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1425 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 11Actual: 15
Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 1
Esenler Erokspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.40

Attack: Bodrum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.20

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.0%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.