1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 4

İstanbulspor–Fatih Karagümrük

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'İstanbulsporA. Cham (assist: B. Nizam)
13'Fatih KaragümrükE. Akbaba (assist: A. Pešić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Fatih Karagümrük
7	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	6
42%	Possession	58%
333	Passes	460
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.62 · Fatih Karagümrük 1.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots İstanbulspor 7 · Fatih Karagümrük 11; on target 3 and 5.
Fatih Karagümrük kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Oguzhan Aksu, Türkiye→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “İstanbulspor to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for İstanbulspor, 1.45 for Fatih Karagümrük.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,411 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win30.9%

Draw27.8%

Fatih Karagümrük to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

İstanbulspor lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time41.2%

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Fatih Karagümrük ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1411 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 12Actual: 11
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 2
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.62

Attack: İstanbulspor score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.23

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.7%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.