1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 2

Fatih Karagümrük–Ümraniyespor

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'Fatih KaragümrükA. Pešić (assist: M. Sarikaya)
71'ÜmraniyesporC. Soukou
76'Fatih KaragümrükA. Pešić (assist: E. Akbaba)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.48 · Ümraniyespor 0.92. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

Ayberk Demirbas, Türkiye→

4.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.92 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Fatih Karagümrük win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,388 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win49.9%

Draw28.1%

Ümraniyespor to win22.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time44.3%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1388 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 12
Ümraniyespor: at least 12

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4
Ümraniyespor: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.48

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.92

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–012.8%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.