2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SV Elversberg–Preußen Münster

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'SV ElversbergB. Conté (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
14'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: L. Günther)
66'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: B. Conté)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Preußen Münster
11	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
484	Passes	273
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 2.22 · Preußen Münster 0.83. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SV Elversberg 11 · Preußen Münster 5; on target 5 and 2.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.17

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.5%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.78 for SV Elversberg, 0.89 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 91.9% (1X — SV Elversberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win77.5%

Draw14.4%

Preußen Münster to win8.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time56.0%

Level at half-time34.2%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time9.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level90.3%

12 — not level at half-time65.8%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead44.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 8
Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 6Actual: 6
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score2.22

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score0.83

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–09.9%2–19.6%3–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.