2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Karlsruher SC–VfL Bochum

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'VfL BochumK. Watjen (assist: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht)
19'Karlsruher SCS. Fukuda
70'VfL BochumM. Kwarteng (assist: M. Bero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		VfL Bochum
16	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
571	Passes	362
490	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.66 · VfL Bochum 1.53. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Karlsruher SC 16 · VfL Bochum 11; on target 6 and 4.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

P. Alt→

5.50

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 38.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Karlsruher SC, 1.80 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win38.0%

Draw23.8%

VfL Bochum to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time27.3%

Level at half-time41.4%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead72.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 9Actual: 7
VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 11
VfL Bochum: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.66

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.53

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.9%1–28.7%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.