2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Arminia Bielefeld–Hertha BSC

6–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Hertha BSCL. Gechter (assist: J. Eitschberger)
49'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (assist: M. Momuluh)
59'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (assist: A. Sicker)
65'Arminia BielefeldM. Momuluh (assist: M. Corboz)
74'Arminia BielefeldS. Russo
90'Arminia BielefeldS. Telalovic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		Hertha BSC
27	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	3
20	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
369	Passes	333
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 · Hertha BSC 1.29. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 27 · Hertha BSC 9; on target 12 and 3.

Referee

K. Oldhafer→

3.71

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.14 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Arminia Bielefeld win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win57.2%

Draw23.0%

Hertha BSC to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time30.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level69.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 14
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 9
Hertha BSC: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.54

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.29

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–110.9%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.