2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Dynamo Dresden–Holstein Kiel

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: A. Rossipal)
36'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: K. Amoako)
81'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: Leon Parduzi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		Holstein Kiel
10	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	9
4	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
347	Passes	509
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.72 · Holstein Kiel 1.16. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 10 · Holstein Kiel 9; on target 2 and 3.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. P. Eckermann→

3.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.5%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.23 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Dynamo Dresden win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win54.5%

Draw23.4%

Holstein Kiel to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time42.3%

Level at half-time38.5%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead57.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 14
Holstein Kiel: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 3
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.72

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.16

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–110.7%2–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.