2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SV Darmstadt 98–SC Paderborn 07

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'SC Paderborn 07S. Marino (assist: M. Hansen)
89'SC Paderborn 07S. Michel (assist: F. Bilbija)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		SC Paderborn 07
23	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
394	Passes	412
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 · SC Paderborn 07 1.55. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 23 · SC Paderborn 07 7; on target 8 and 5.

Referee

F. Badstubner→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “SV Darmstadt 98 to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.99 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win26.2%

Draw23.4%

SC Paderborn 07 to win50.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,338 of 2,543 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time38.7%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 11
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 5
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.59

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.55

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–210.2%2–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.