2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

1. FC Magdeburg–1. FC Kaiserslautern

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Ritter (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		1. FC Kaiserslautern
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
496	Passes	371
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.94 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.33. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 13 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 8; on target 4 and 4.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Burda→

4.39

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.24 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win62.7%

Draw20.0%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win17.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time39.1%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 9
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.94

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.33

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%1–18.8%3–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.