2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Fortuna Düsseldorf

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus (assist: G. Itter)
16'SpVgg Greuther FürthE. Egouli (own goal)
36'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Fortuna Düsseldorf
13	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
276	Passes	530
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.54 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 13 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 12; on target 7 and 1.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.36

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.42 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win45.8%

Draw24.9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win29.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time42.6%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 9Actual: 8
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 2
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.54

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.34

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.1%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.