2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Hannover 96–1. FC Nürnberg

3–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: J. Fernandez)
30'Hannover 96K. Oudenne (assist: W. Taïbi)
45'Hannover 96W. Taïbi (assist: M. Bundu)
47'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: J. Justvan)
51'Hannover 96L. Lochoshvili (own goal)
83'1. FC NürnbergL. Lochoshvili

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		1. FC Nürnberg
22	Shots	17
9	Shots on target	6
19	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	7
5	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
388	Passes	455
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.81 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.08. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Hannover 96 22 · 1. FC Nürnberg 17; on target 9 and 6.

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.67

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Hannover 96, 1.07 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win63.1%

Draw20.9%

1. FC Nürnberg to win16.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Hannover 96 lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time42.1%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 12Actual: 5
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 8
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.81

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.08

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.