2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Hertha BSC–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Hertha BSCJ. Brekalo · red card
55'Hertha BSCK. Eichhorn (assist: F. Reese)
84'Hertha BSCM. Cuisance (assist: Michał Karbownik)
88'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu (assist: S. Ltaief)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
8	Shots	29
5	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	19
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	18
3	Offsides	5
35%	Possession	65%
285	Passes	520
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.94 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.04. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 8 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29; on target 5 and 3.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.09

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Hertha BSC, 1.33 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,212 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win52.3%

Draw23.4%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win24.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time45.1%

Level at half-time38.3%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead54.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1212 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 11
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 3Actual: 18

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.94

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.04

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–110.5%2–07.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.