2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Fortuna Düsseldorf–SV Elversberg

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Fortuna DüsseldorfF. Le Joncour (own goal)
43'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: S. Appelkamp)
51'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: T. Breithaupt)
90'SV ElversbergT. Oberdorf (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		SV Elversberg
9	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
342	Passes	441
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 · SV Elversberg 1.64. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 9 · SV Elversberg 16; on target 2 and 2.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.49

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.72 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,212 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win29.2%

Draw25.5%

SV Elversberg to win45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time36.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level63.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1212 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 6
SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 2
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.21

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.64

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.2%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.