Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 25

Eyüpspor–Beşiktaş

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 21 February 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'EyüpsporT. Bingol (assist: E. Mor)
18'BeşiktaşRafa Silva (assist: C. Immobile)
45+2'BeşiktaşM. Rashica (assist: Rafa Silva)
60'BeşiktaşS. Kilicsoy (assist: Rafa Silva)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Beşiktaş
7	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
4	Offsides	6
46%	Possession	54%
384	Passes	475
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.48 · Beşiktaş 1.21. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Eyüpspor 7 · Beşiktaş 18; on target 3 and 7.

Unavailable players

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
I. Taskinout · Muscle Injury
R. Niyazout · Knee Injury
S. Gumusout · injury
L. Duboisdoubtful · injury

Beşiktaş

B. Zaynutdinovout · Thigh Injury
E. Terziout · Muscle Injury
N. Uysalout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

5.50

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “Eyüpspor to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Eyüpspor, 1.45 for Beşiktaş.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win30.5%

Draw27.8%

Beşiktaş to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eyüpspor win or draw58.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Beşiktaş win69.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Eyüpspor lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time43.2%

Beşiktaş lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Beşiktaş ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 908 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 12Actual: 10
Beşiktaş: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Beşiktaş: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.48

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.21

Attack: Beşiktaş score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.7%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 909 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 23 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.