2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Eintracht Braunschweig–Dynamo Dresden

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Eintracht BraunschweigF. Flick
50'Eintracht BraunschweigF. Alidou (assist: F. Kaufmann)
86'Dynamo DresdenS. Kutschke (assist: A. Rossipal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Dynamo Dresden
9	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	9
1	Offsides	2
29%	Possession	71%
222	Passes	569
137	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.31 · Dynamo Dresden 1.42. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 9 · Dynamo Dresden 14; on target 2 and 4.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

C. Dingert→

4.42

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “Dynamo Dresden to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.34 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win37.3%

Draw27.8%

Dynamo Dresden to win35.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time42.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level57.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 13
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 5
Dynamo Dresden: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.31

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.42

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.2%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.