2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Arminia Bielefeld

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Ritter (penalty)
29'1. FC KaiserslauternS. Asta (assist: M. Ritter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Arminia Bielefeld
12	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
263	Passes	443
170	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.70 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.34. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 12 · Arminia Bielefeld 19; on target 6 and 5.
Arminia Bielefeld kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.51

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.87 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (X2 — draw or Arminia Bielefeld win).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win23.2%

Draw24.3%

Arminia Bielefeld to win52.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time40.9%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 21
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 4
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.70

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.34

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–210.7%0–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.