2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

SC Paderborn 07–Karlsruher SC

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija
75'Karlsruher SCFabian Schleusener (assist: Philipp Förster)
79'Karlsruher SCS. Fukuda (assist: D. Herold)
85'SC Paderborn 07S. Klaas

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Karlsruher SC
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
470	Passes	495
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.29 · Karlsruher SC 1.02. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 19 · Karlsruher SC 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

R. Braun→

4.66

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.6%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.10 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win68.6%

Draw18.1%

Karlsruher SC to win13.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 10Actual: 8
Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 4
Karlsruher SC: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.29

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.02

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%3–18.7%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.