2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

SV Elversberg–SC Paderborn 07

5–1

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'SV ElversbergM. Rohr (assist: L. Petkov)
17'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: L. Günther)
28'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: Ł. Poręba)
41'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
65'SC Paderborn 07C. Brackelmann (assist: N. Batzner)
90'SV ElversbergR. Adam

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		SC Paderborn 07
8	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
326	Passes	435
240	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.61 · SC Paderborn 07 1.29. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots SV Elversberg 8 · SC Paderborn 07 11; on target 5 and 6.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

B. Brand→

4.63

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “SC Paderborn 07 to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for SV Elversberg, 1.38 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win43.5%

Draw25.8%

SC Paderborn 07 to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 4–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time40.0%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 11
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 2
SC Paderborn 07: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.61

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.29

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.0%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.