2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

1. FC Magdeburg–Hertha BSC

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'1. FC MagdeburgL. Ulrich

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Hertha BSC
7	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
409	Passes	443
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.73 · Hertha BSC 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 7 · Hertha BSC 14; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

J. Wienefeld→

3.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.50 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win48.0%

Draw23.6%

Hertha BSC to win28.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time39.1%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 7
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 1
Hertha BSC: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.73

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.39

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%2–110.0%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.