2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Hannover 96–Preußen Münster

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Preußen Münster
19	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
515	Passes	222
457	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 2.05 · Preußen Münster 0.88. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Hannover 96 19 · Preußen Münster 16; on target 7 and 8.
Hannover 96 kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

F. Lechner→

4.38

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Hannover 96, 0.95 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win65.7%

Draw20.4%

Preußen Münster to win13.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hannover 96 win or draw86.2%

12 — any result other than a draw79.6%

X2 — draw or Preußen Münster win34.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Hannover 96 lead at half-time49.8%

Level at half-time38.6%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead50.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 11
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 6Actual: 10
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 58.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score2.05

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score0.88

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.6%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1201 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.