2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

FC Schalke 04–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Fortuna Düsseldorf
14	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	5
40%	Possession	60%
316	Passes	494
203	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.89 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 14 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 6; on target 6 and 2.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

P. Ittrich→

4.26

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for FC Schalke 04, 0.98 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,200 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win61.5%

Draw22.3%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win16.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1200 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 6
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 4
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.89

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score0.94

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.