2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Holstein Kiel–Eintracht Braunschweig

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: J. Therkelsen)
87'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: A. Bernhardsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Eintracht Braunschweig
12	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
378	Passes	312
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.67 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 12 · Eintracht Braunschweig 9; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

F. Exner→

4.58

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Holstein Kiel, 1.29 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win38.7%

Draw27.9%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time39.2%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 13
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 5Actual: 4
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.67

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.10

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.4%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.