2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Arminia Bielefeld–VfL Bochum

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (penalty)
79'VfL BochumM. Kwarteng (assist: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		VfL Bochum
8	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
298	Passes	303
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.66 · VfL Bochum 1.37. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 8 · VfL Bochum 6; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.71

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.28 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win47.5%

Draw25.4%

VfL Bochum to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time30.8%

Level at half-time40.6%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead69.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 6
VfL Bochum: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 6Actual: 8
VfL Bochum: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.66

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.37

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.4%1–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.