2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

Dynamo Dresden–1. FC Kaiserslautern

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: A. Rossipal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		1. FC Kaiserslautern
15	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
509	Passes	423
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.76 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 15 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

P. Alt→

5.49

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.08 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Dynamo Dresden win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win60.0%

Draw22.3%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time37.1%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 11Actual: 9
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 7
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.76

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.38

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.8%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.