2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

SV Darmstadt 98–SV Elversberg

3–3

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'SV Darmstadt 98P. Pfeiffer (assist: H. Akiyama)
15'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby
26'SV ElversbergT. Zimmerschied
34'SV ElversbergM. Rohr (assist: L. Petkov)
44'SV Darmstadt 98P. Pfeiffer · red card
45'SV ElversbergL. Petkov

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		SV Elversberg
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
349	Passes	388
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.45 · SV Elversberg 1.52. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 13 · SV Elversberg 17; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

R. Hempel→

5.06

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “SV Darmstadt 98 to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.68 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win33.0%

Draw25.4%

SV Elversberg to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–3

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time42.1%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1193 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 11Actual: 10
SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 5
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.45

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.52

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.