2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Preußen Münster–Arminia Bielefeld

2–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Preußen MünsterYassine Bouchama
11'Arminia BielefeldM. Momuluh (assist: T. Handwerker)
16'Arminia BielefeldR. Uldriķis (assist: T. Handwerker)
34'Arminia BielefeldM. Corboz (assist: R. Uldriķis)
86'Preußen MünsterM. Großer (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Arminia Bielefeld
17	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
397	Passes	246
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.33 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.45. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Preußen Münster 17 · Arminia Bielefeld 12; on target 5 and 4.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.95

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Preußen Münster, 1.52 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win28.6%

Draw27.3%

Arminia Bielefeld to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Preußen Münster lead at half-time24.0%

Level at half-time44.1%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead76.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 17
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 7
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.33

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.45

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.0%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.