2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Hertha BSC–Holstein Kiel

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Holstein KielJ. Therkelsen (assist: P. Harres)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		Holstein Kiel
23	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
406	Passes	287
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.73 · Holstein Kiel 1.19. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 23 · Holstein Kiel 6; on target 3 and 1.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

R. Kampka→

4.90

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Hertha BSC, 1.19 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Hertha BSC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win53.6%

Draw24.0%

Holstein Kiel to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hertha BSC win or draw77.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Holstein Kiel win46.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time39.8%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 6
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 5
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.73

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.19

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.8%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1190 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.