2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Dynamo Dresden

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: F. Kastenmeier)
17'Fortuna DüsseldorfE. Iyoha (assist: S. Appelkamp)
58'Fortuna DüsseldorfL. Raimund (assist: C. Itten)
90'Dynamo DresdenJ. Lemmer (assist: B. Bobzien)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Dynamo Dresden
9	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
34%	Possession	66%
280	Passes	549
182	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 · Dynamo Dresden 1.38. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 9 · Dynamo Dresden 17; on target 6 and 5.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

T. Bauer→

4.28

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Dynamo Dresden to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.38 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,188 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win40.4%

Draw26.6%

Dynamo Dresden to win33.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time17.2%

Level at half-time40.8%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time42.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level58.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead82.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1188 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 11
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 5Actual: 3
Dynamo Dresden: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.47

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.38

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.7%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.