2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Eintracht Braunschweig–Hertha BSC

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Hertha BSCF. Reese
73'Hertha BSCK. Eichhorn · red card
78'Eintracht BraunschweigMax Marie (assist: F. Flick)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Hertha BSC
16	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
428	Passes	329
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 · Hertha BSC 1.48. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 16 · Hertha BSC 10; on target 4 and 2.
Eintracht Braunschweig kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

P. Alt→

5.45

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.61 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win30.8%

Draw26.2%

Hertha BSC to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time22.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead78.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 15
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 8
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.29

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.48

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–210.0%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.