2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

FC Schalke 04–Preußen Münster

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (assist: D. Ljubičić)
45'FC Schalke 04J. Heuer (own goal)
51'FC Schalke 04A. Aouchiche (assist: D. Ljubičić)
66'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla (assist: K. Karaman)
82'Preußen MünsterS. Yamada (assist: J. ter Horst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Preußen Münster
23	Shots	4
9	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
520	Passes	396
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.87 · Preußen Münster 0.87. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 23 · Preußen Münster 4; on target 9 and 2.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.48

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for FC Schalke 04, 0.85 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 84.7% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win61.2%

Draw23.5%

Preußen Münster to win15.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time43.8%

Level at half-time41.8%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead56.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 9
Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 7
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.87

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score0.87

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–011.8%1–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.