2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Hannover 96–SC Paderborn 07

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'SC Paderborn 07F. Gotze (assist: R. Obermair)
78'Hannover 96B. Källman (assist: M. Bundu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		SC Paderborn 07
5	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
622	Passes	331
544	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.52 · SC Paderborn 07 1.32. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hannover 96 5 · SC Paderborn 07 16; on target 2 and 6.
Hannover 96 kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Burda→

4.40

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “SC Paderborn 07 to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Hannover 96, 1.41 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,184 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win42.1%

Draw25.9%

SC Paderborn 07 to win32.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hannover 96 lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1184 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 12
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 5
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.52

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.32

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.