2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

Arminia Bielefeld–1. FC Nürnberg

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: A. Marhiev)
81'Arminia BielefeldT. Handwerker (assist: J. Rochelt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		1. FC Nürnberg
10	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	2
7	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
514	Passes	248
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.65 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 10 · 1. FC Nürnberg 9; on target 2 and 3.
Arminia Bielefeld kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

R. Braun→

4.70

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.24 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win47.7%

Draw25.7%

1. FC Nürnberg to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time42.2%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1181 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 12
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 2
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.65

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.25

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.4%1–08.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.