2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

SV Elversberg–Karlsruher SC

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'SV ElversbergI. Pherai (assist: L. Petkov)
53'SV ElversbergI. Pherai (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
62'SV ElversbergT. Zimmerschied (assist: L. Günther)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Karlsruher SC
15	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
372	Passes	669
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 2.20 · Karlsruher SC 0.99. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SV Elversberg 15 · Karlsruher SC 10; on target 10 and 2.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.35

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.38 for SV Elversberg, 1.14 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — SV Elversberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,179 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win65.3%

Draw19.5%

Karlsruher SC to win15.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time39.7%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1179 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 8
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 6Actual: 2
Karlsruher SC: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score2.20

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score0.99

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%1–18.8%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.