2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

VfL Bochum–Eintracht Braunschweig

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'VfL BochumG. Holtmann (assist: P. Hofmann)
45'VfL BochumK. Miyoshi (assist: P. Hofmann)
68'VfL BochumFarid Alfa-Ruprecht (assist: C. Marshall)
84'Eintracht BraunschweigL. Tempelmann (assist: J. Mijatović)
90'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		Eintracht Braunschweig
15	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
318	Passes	463
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.82 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots VfL Bochum 15 · Eintracht Braunschweig 15; on target 6 and 2.
Eintracht Braunschweig kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.44

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for VfL Bochum, 1.13 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — VfL Bochum win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,176 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win52.6%

Draw25.0%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win22.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	4

6	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

VfL Bochum lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time40.5%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1176 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 15
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 2
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.82

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.08

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.8%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.