2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Hertha BSC–1. FC Kaiserslautern

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Berisha (assist: S. Şahin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		1. FC Kaiserslautern
19	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
430	Passes	299
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.79 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.37. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 19 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 11; on target 6 and 4.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

L. Benen→

4.81

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Hertha BSC, 1.30 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Hertha BSC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win54.3%

Draw23.0%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time39.9%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 11
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 5
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.79

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.37

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–110.6%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.