2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Holstein Kiel

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: A. Kaprálik)
71'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: S. Tanaka)
79'Holstein KielI. Nekić (assist: U. Tohumcu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Holstein Kiel
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
476	Passes	357
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 · Holstein Kiel 1.28. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 14 · Holstein Kiel 11; on target 5 and 3.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Jollenbeck→

4.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.28 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,170 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win46.1%

Draw25.9%

Holstein Kiel to win28.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time43.3%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1170 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 13
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 5Actual: 7
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.57

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.28

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.3%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.