2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

Holstein Kiel–Preußen Münster

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Preußen Münster
13	Shots	6
0	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
11	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
488	Passes	240
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.78 · Preußen Münster 1.16. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 13 · Preußen Münster 6; on target 0 and 1.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Burda→

4.36

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Holstein Kiel, 1.14 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Holstein Kiel win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,165 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win46.9%

Draw27.0%

Preußen Münster to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time40.6%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1165 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 15
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 5Actual: 11
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.78

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.16

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.3%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.